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The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today by ManpowerGroup, reaffirms continued hiring confidence in the second quarter of 2014, as U.S. employers report a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +13%. This is the third consecutive quarter with a Net Employment Outlook of +13%, which is the strongest Outlook since Quarter 2 2008 when the Outlook was +14%. The Quarter 2 Outlook is slightly stronger than one year ago when the Outlook was +11%.
Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 19 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 2 2014 hiring plans, while anticipated staff reductions are among the lowest in survey history at 4 percent. Seventy-three percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 4 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +15%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +13%.
U.S. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Results
|Quarter||Increase Staff Levels||Decrease Staff Levels||Maintain Staff Levels||Don’t Know||Net Employment Outlook
(one year ago)
“Although we expect measured, stable growth in new hiring for the coming quarter, the good news is that employers anticipate the lowest rate of workforce reductions in nearly four decades,” said ManpowerGroup President Jonas Prising. “With ninety-two percent of U.S. employers planning to hire or keep their staff levels steady, there is a sense of optimism that demand for goods and services is getting more predictable, allowing employers to feel more comfortable about business growth.”
This quarter’s research shows that employers expect hiring intentions to remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter across all regions, and slightly increase compared to one year ago at this time.
“To keep the momentum going, employers need to rethink their talent strategies so they can make the most of continued demand when they feel it,” said Prising. “Flexible workforce models that incorporate a mix of full-time and contract staff are essential to getting ahead in today’s uncertain economic cycles. By remaining agile, business leaders can create adaptive workforces that leverage advanced technology and specialized teams to drive strong results.”
While the Quarter 2 Outlooks remain relatively stable across all regions, the states and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) indicate some variance in hiring intentions. Among the 50 states, employers in North Dakota indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlook at +25%. Employers in Puerto Rico expect staff reductions to outweigh additions with an Outlook of -4%.Employers in all 100 MSAs surveyed report positive hiring plans, with Provo, Utah, the most positive at +29%. Employers in Honolulu, Hawaii, report the weakest Outlook at +6%.
Hiring Outlooks for Industry Sectors and Regions
New in 2014, the survey results include deseasonalized data at the industry level, which aligns with the methodology used to tabulate and present the national and regional data. Therefore, the numbers presented below are deseasonalized across all industries.
For Quarter 2 2014, employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey: Leisure & Hospitality (+20%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+19%), Mining (+18%), Professional & Business Services (+14%), Transportation & Utilities (+12%), Information (+12%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+11%), Government (+10%), Construction (+9%), Financial Activities (+8%), Education & Health Services (+8%), Other Services (+7%) and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+6%). When the industry sector data is compared quarter-over-quarter, employers in the Mining sector anticipate a moderate hiring increase, while employers in the Government sector anticipate a slight hiring increase. Staff levels are expected to remain relatively stable among employers in seven industry sectors: Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Information, Education & Health Services and Other Services. Employers in the Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services and Leisure & Hospitality sectors anticipate a slight decrease in the hiring pace, while Nondurable Goods Manufacturers expect a moderate hiring decrease.
Employers in all four U.S. regions surveyed report a positive Net Employment Outlook. Quarter-over-quarter, plans to add workers remain consistent among employers in all regions. Compared to one year ago at this time, employers in the Midwest and Northeast regions expect a relatively stable hiring environment, while employers in the South and West regions expect a slight uptick in hiring for Quarter 2 2014.
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